Match Details
Fixture: (16) Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi
Date: April 30, 2025
Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open 2025
Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)
Venue: Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Prize Money: $8,619,262
Live Telecast: USA – Tennis Channel | UK – Sky Sports | Canada – TSN | India – Sony LIV
Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi preview
17th-seeded Frances Tiafoe will face Italy’s Matteo Arnaldi for a place in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Madrid Masters on Wednesday (April 30).
Before arriving in Madrid, Tiafoe had endured a rather disappointing campaign on the ATP Tour this season as he had lost nine of his first 19 matches. However, the World No. 17 has since turned his fortunes around at Caja Magica, reaching the fourth round of the tournament for the first time in his career.
Having received a first-round bye, the 27-year-old was leading 7-5, 3-1 when Italy’s Luciano Darderi retired in their second-round match due to injury. The American then routed his next opponent, Alexandre Muller, 6-3, 6-3 on Tuesday (April 29) to book his berth in the second week of the 1000-level event.
Arnaldi, meanwhile, had put together a mediocre 8-9 win/loss record but has made amends for his form in Madrid this week. After getting through a tough three-setter against Borna Coric, the Italian sprang up a 6-3, 6-4 upset over three-time champion Novak Djokovic in the second round.
The World No. 44 then downed Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Damir Dzumhur by the same scoreline on Monday (April 28) to reach the fourth round of the tournament.
Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi head-to-head
Tiafoe leads Arnaldi 1-0 in head-to-head meetings on the ATP Tour. The American came from two sets to love down to defeat the Italian in the first round of the 2024 Wimbledon.
Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi odds
(All bets sourced from BetMGM)
Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction
Tiafoe has been getting underneath the ball well on the medium-paced clay courts at Caja Magica. While the American’s short placement on his forehand has been taken advantage of in the past, he has been able to hide this weakness for the past fortnight. That said, he will have to be wary of an aggressive opponent of Arnaldi’s mould.
The 24-year-old’s explosive groundstrokes from both wings left Djokovic, arguably the best defensive baseliner in the game, during their last week’s encounter in Madrid. He has also shown razor-sharp focus and incredible hustle on important points, which might just be the differentiator between him and the World No. 17 during their fourth-round clash.
Pick: Arnaldi to win in straight sets.
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Edited by Riddhiman Sarkar
